Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Bengals as the 4th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 62.6% red zone pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to attempt 37.0 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 54.0%.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Tennessee's unit has been outstanding since the start of last season, ranking as the 8th-best in football.

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