Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 62.2% red zone pass rate.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.8 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the best touchdown passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 2.06 per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the highest rate in the league versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season (71.9%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Joe Burrow's passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.4% to 57.1%.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has allowed the 10th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 1.26 per game since the start of last season.

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