Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to pass on 68.6% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (64.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 40.1 passes in this week's game, on average: the most out of all QBs.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in football.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Bengals ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Joe Burrow's 66.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a noteworthy regression in his passing precision over last season's 69.4% rate.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 10th-lowest level in the NFL versus the Baltimore Ravens defense this year (67.8% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the strong Ravens defense has yielded a measly 0.70 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the best rate in the NFL.

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