Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 5:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football near the end zone (64.1% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
In this week's game, Joe Burrow is expected by our trusted projection set to total the most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 39.7.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league against the Houston Texans defense this year (75.1% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Joe Burrow's passing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 66.1%.
The Houston Texans defense has conceded the 2nd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 0.88 per game this year.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Houston's collection of CBs has been very good this year, profiling as the 3rd-best in the NFL.

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