Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 4th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 62.6% red zone pass rate.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.9 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 86th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in football since the start of last season with a stellar 69.6% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.6 pass attempts per game against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season (67.8%).
The Cleveland Browns defense has allowed the 5th-least passing touchdowns in the league: 1.18 per game since the start of last season.