Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+168/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 62.5% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in football this year with a stellar 68.4% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the top TD passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 2.00 per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest clip in the NFL against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (73.0%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.

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