Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 62.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.2% red zone pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has been among the best precision passers in football this year with a terrific 66.8% Completion%, ranking in the 81st percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the top touchdown throwers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 1.80 per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in football vs. the New Orleans Saints defense this year (62.5%).

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