Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 2:10 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-192/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -139 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's throwing precision has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 69.6% to 66.1%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 8th-best safety corps in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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