Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 61.6% red zone pass rate.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target QBs in football this year with a stellar 70.5% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 7th-least passing TDs in the NFL: 1.19 per game this year.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the 7th-best safety corps in football this year in pass coverage.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a measly 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.

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