Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-200/+160).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 10th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 59.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.0 passes in this week's game, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with a stellar 68.8% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 6th-best collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a lowly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

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