Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-235).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -212 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 67.2% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.6 passes per game this year, checking in at the 78th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has been among the most accurate quarterbacks in football this year with a terrific 70.0% Completion%, ranking in the 97th percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.08 per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.9 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-least in the league.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has given their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.42 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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