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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -149 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.

Joe Burrow has attempted 37.9 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in football.

Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in the NFL this year with a terrific 70.4% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year (65.9%).

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 8th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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