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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Carolina Panthers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -118.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Bengals, who are favored by 5 points.

Joe Burrow has been a much bigger part of his team's ground game this season (19.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.3%).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most adjusted yards in the NFL (139 per game) against the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season.

The Carolina defensive tackles grade out as the 2nd-worst group of DTs in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to run on 37.1% of their plays: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and traits of each team, the predictive model expects this game (with an average of 27.26 seconds per play) will chug along at the 11th-most sluggish tempo on the slate this week.

The Bengals have run the 8th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a mere 56.4 plays per game.

Joe Burrow's 2.34 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year indicates a meaningful drop-off in his running prowess over last year's 5.11 figure.

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