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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 7-point advantage, the Bengals are heavily favored in this week's contest, implying much more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.

After taking on 9.3% of his team's run game usage last year, Joe Burrow has had a larger role in the ground game this year, now making up 26.3%.

The Commanders defense has had the worst efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, conceding 4.69 adjusted yards-per-carry.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to run on 36.6% of their plays: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.

At the moment, the 3rd-slowest paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) generally cause better passing efficiency, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

In this contest, Joe Burrow is forecasted by the projection model to accumulate the 3rd-fewest rush attempts out of all quarterbacks with 3.9.

Joe Burrow's rushing efficiency has worsened this season, totaling a measly 2.27 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.11 mark last season.

More Joe Burrow Player Props

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