Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 138.5 plays on offense called: the highest number on the slate this week.
Joe Burrow's running efficiency has improved this year, accumulating 6.10 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to just 5.11 rate last year.
The Cleveland Browns defense has had the 7th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 4.79 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to accrue 2.7 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 7th-fewest out of all QBs.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers rank as the best group of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

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