Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

While Joe Burrow has earned 7.8% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the leading projections forecast him to be a much bigger part of Cincinnati's ground game in this week's game at 13.2%.
The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 34.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to total 2.8 rush attempts this week, on balance: the 4th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year in run support.

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