Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Joe Burrow has averaged 3.3 carries per game since the start of last season, one of the largest rates in football among quarterbacks (75th percentile).
Joe Burrow isn't afraid to call his own number, accounting for 14.2% of his offense's rush attempts since the start of last season, putting him in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (137 per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense since the start of last season.
The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup quarterback Joe Burrow in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 38.8% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.

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