Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-101/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -132.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his team's running game this week (14.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.9% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for significantly more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, compiling 5.49 yards-per-carry vs just 3.53 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 38.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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