Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 4:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+114/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Joe Burrow has averaged 3.3 rush attempts per game this year, one of the biggest rates in football among quarterbacks (76th percentile).
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (15.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.8% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for substantially more yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's rushing effectiveness has improved this season, notching 5.12 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.53 figure last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 33.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the 10th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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