Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his offense's run game this week (11.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.2% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for substantially more yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness has gotten a boost this season, averaging 5.23 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.53 mark last season.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading quarterbacks in football at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 2.75 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 86th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-least run-centric team on the slate this week with a 36.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to earn 2.5 rush attempts in this game, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.

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