Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his team's running game this week (13.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.5% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow's rushing effectiveness has improved this season, totaling 5.65 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.53 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.2% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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