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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his team's rushing attack this week (12.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.4% in games he has played).

Joe Burrow's ground efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 6.91 yards-per-carry vs a measly 3.53 figure last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in the league), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

More Joe Burrow Player Props

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