Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be much more involved in his team's running game this week (15.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for quite a few more yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's running efficiency has been refined this season, totaling 5.04 yards-per-carry vs just 3.53 rate last season.
The Buffalo Bills safeties project as the 29th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 33.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to accrue 3.4 carries in this game, on average: the 2nd-least of all QBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the worst in football this year in run blocking.

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