Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 9, 2023 3:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (16.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for substantially more yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's running efficiency has been refined this year, notching 5.14 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.53 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-least yards in the league (just 95 per game) against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Baltimore Ravens defensive tackles grade out as the 10th-best DT corps in the NFL this year with their run defense.

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