Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (16.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.6% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for a lot more yards per game (18.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 5.30 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.53 figure last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots safeties rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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