Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to notch 4.3 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 9th-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (16.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for quite a few more yards per game (18.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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