Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (13.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for significantly more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's rushing efficiency has been refined this season, accumulating 5.33 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.53 mark last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 34.2% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the 5th-least yards in the NFL (just 101 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.