Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his offense's run game this week (13.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (5.9% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for quite a few more yards per game (15.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness has improved this year, totaling 5.07 yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.53 rate last year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have run for the least yards in football (just 79 per game) vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in football this year in regard to defending the run.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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