Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a much bigger part of his offense's run game this week (14.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (3.6% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (144 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
Joe Burrow has averaged just 6.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (24th percentile).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness (3.53 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in football since the start of last season (15th percentile among quarterbacks).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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