Joe Burrow Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 16, 2022 7:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+402/-860).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Joe Burrow isn't afraid to call his own number near the end zone, accounting for 18.9% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (81st percentile among quarterbacks).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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