Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 276.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 264.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 276.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 66.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
The predictive model expects Joe Burrow to attempt 39.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest clip in football versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (77.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to test the pass defense of the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 5th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 33.1 per game) this year.
Joe Burrow's 230.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a noteworthy diminishment in his passing ability over last year's 289.0 figure.
Joe Burrow's passing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 65.7%.
Joe Burrow's 6.10 adjusted yards-per-target this season reflects an impressive diminishment in his passing effectiveness over last season's 7.6% mark.

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