Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 4:56 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 280.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 272.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 280.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their plays: the 3rd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The model projects Joe Burrow to throw 38.3 passes in this game, on average: the 2nd-most among all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 42.2 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
This year, the anemic Seattle Seahawks defense has been gouged for a massive 315.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing offenses: the 2nd-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
Joe Burrow's 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year signifies a a material drop-off in his passing prowess over last year's 289.0 rate.
Joe Burrow's 60.6% Adjusted Completion% this year represents a a material decline in his passing precision over last year's 69.4% figure.
Joe Burrow's passing efficiency has tailed off this year, averaging just 5.42 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 rate last year.

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