Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 285.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 282.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 285.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 66.1% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Joe Burrow has thrown for many more yards per game (267.0) this year than he did last year (211.0).
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target passers in football this year with a stellar 68.4% Completion%, checking in at the 91st percentile.
Opposing QBs have passed for the 6th-most yards in the league (282.0 per game) vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's passing effectiveness has tailed off this year, notching a measly 7.03 yards-per-target vs a 8.12 mark last year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.62 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.

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