Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 293.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 286.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 293.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 85th percentile among QBs.
Joe Burrow has thrown for many more yards per game (293.0) this season than he did last season (266.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has displayed strong efficiency this year, conceding 7.28 yards-per-target: the 7th-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.23 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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