Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 36.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.9 throws per game this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box vs. opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows down the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

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