Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 38.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 67.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.6 throws per game this year, checking in at the 85th percentile among QBs.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a measly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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