Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-101/-129).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 35.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 34.5 @ -129.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 passes per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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