Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-108/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 37.9 passes per game this year, ranking in the 77th percentile among QBs.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 8th-most in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a huge 7-point favorite this week, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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