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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Completions
Player Prop Week 16

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 138.5 plays on offense called: the highest number on the slate this week.

The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.

In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.4.

Joe Burrow ranks as one of the most accurate passers in the NFL this year with a stellar 69.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 85th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.

When talking about pocket protection (and the influence it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL versus the Browns defense this year (65.5% Adjusted Completion%).

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