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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Completions
Player Prop Week 3

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -137 before it was bet up to 24.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the league against the New York Jets defense since the start of last season (74.5%).

The New York Jets linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 7th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Joe Burrow has attempted a mere 28.6 throws per game since the start of last season, checking in at the 24th percentile among quarterbacks.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

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