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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Completions
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 passes per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
  • Joe Burrow has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with an impressive 69.0% Completion%, grading out in the 97th percentile.
  • The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the NFL versus the New England Patriots defense this year (65.6%).
  • The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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