Jody Fortson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Jody Fortson

NFL · Player Props

Jody Fortson

TE · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jody Fortson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles safeties grade out as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has given their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Joe Fortson has played on 21.1% of his offense's snaps this year, ranking in the 18th percentile among TEs.
Joe Fortson has been among the weakest TE receiving threats this year, averaging just 1.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 17th percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (67.9%) vs. TEs this year (67.9%).

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