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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Carries
Player Prop Week 4

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
J.K. Dobbins Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (+135/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ +135.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Chargers to be the 6th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • In this week's game, J.K. Dobbins is forecasted by our trusted projection set to place in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs with 15.7 rush attempts.
  • Among all running backs, J.K. Dobbins grades out in the 81st percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 52.5% of the workload in his offense's run game.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke.
  • The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Kansas City's collection of safeties has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-best in football.

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