J.K. Dobbins Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 46.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Buffalo Bills safeties grade out as the 30th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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