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Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+115/-150).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -150.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders as the 10th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.0% red zone pass rate.This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The the Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game metrics across the board.Jimmy Garoppolo has been one of the best touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 1.50 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is anticipated by the model to have only 123.6 offensive plays run: the fewest among all games this week.The Las Vegas Raiders have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 51.8 plays per game.This week, Jimmy Garoppolo is expected by the projections to wind up with the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 35.8. This year, the fierce Packers defense has surrendered a paltry 1.00 passing TDs per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-smallest rate in the league.
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