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Jimmy Garoppolo

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+143/-180).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

The Los Angeles Rams safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 54.3% red zone pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 122.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The San Francisco 49ers have called the 10th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 57.1 plays per game.

Opposing offenses have averaged 30.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense this year: 4th-least in the NFL.

Jimmy Garoppolo's throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 64.1%.

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