Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

Carolina Panthers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-190).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -190.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense this year (72.7%).
The San Francisco 49ers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 4th-least pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 52.8% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.