Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 3, 2022 11:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+151/-207).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -207.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing teams have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the league.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line grades out as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have called the least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 57.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 31.9 passes in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.

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