Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 10th-most in football.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line profiles as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most on-target passers in the league this year with a terrific 67.1% Completion%, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defense has given up the 10th-most passing TDs in the league: 1.55 per game this year.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers grade out as the 7th-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 3rd-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 53.1% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 33.5 passes this week, on average: the 10th-least of all QBs.
The Miami Dolphins defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season.

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