Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 9th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best precision passers in football this year with an impressive 66.8% Completion%, checking in at the 79th percentile.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the leading TD throwers in football this year, averaging a terrific 1.67 per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Favors Under

The 49ers are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 53.2% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace out of all the games this week, averaging 26.96 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 32.8 passes in this contest, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.

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